The reigning Mountain West champions are battling just to qualify for the conference tournament.
Andrew Pang
Last May, San Jose State baseball won a high-scoring elimination game at Fresno State to qualify for the final round of the Mountain West Conference Baseball Championship.
A conference title and season later, San Jose State (13-23, 8-10 MW) will visit Fresno State (25-11, 14-4 MW) this weekend in a much different position. The visiting team has a steep hill to climb just to qualify for this year's conference tournament, let alone reach first place again. The home team, in contrast, is the hottest team in the conference.
Following is an overview of how the Valley Rivalry has flipped in baseball over the past year, with an analysis of this weekend's matchup.
Game times and streaming info
All three games will take place at Pete Beiden Field at Bob Bennett Stadium in Fresno, with first pitch times of 6:05 p.m. Friday, 3:05 p.m. Saturday, and 1:05 p.m. Sunday (all times PT).
They will all be streamed for free on the Mountain West Network (https://sjsuspartans.com/watch). On the radio in the Fresno area, Fox Sports AM 1340 will have live play-by-play from the Bulldog Sports Network.
Last time out, San Jose State won 6-3 at Nevada on Sunday, snapping a four-game losing streak and avoiding a series sweep. Fresno State has lost two straight, 6-2 at New Mexico on Sunday and 10-4 at Loyola Marymount on Tuesday.
A recap of 2023
Head coach Brad Sanfilippo had his best season leading San Jose State last year, named Mountain West Coach of the Year along with regular season and conference tournament championships and the team's first NCAA Tournament appearance in 21 years.
That season, San Jose State finished 31-27 (18-11 MW), including a 6-2 record against Fresno State. At the Mountain West Championship hosted by Fresno State, San Jose State beat Fresno State twice, 13-2 on opening day on May 25, then 11-8 in an elimination semifinal game on May 27.
In contrast, Fresno State was going through a transition year following the surprise resignation of longtime head coach Mike Batesole two months before opening day. Fresno State finished 30-27 (16-14 MW) and fourth in conference standings under interim head coach Ryan Overland; after the season, Overland signed a long-term contract.
Overview of this season's matchup
In March, Fresno State took two out of three in the series at San Jose, winning 9-6 on March 15 and 6-2 on March 17. San Jose State took game two on March 16 by a score of 4-2.
Pitching dominated the last two games in contrast to the first. In game two, San Jose State led 4-0 after eight innings and held off a ninth inning rally. Then in game three, the game was tied 2-2 after six, before Fresno State scored four unanswered in the seventh and eighth on two homers.
At 14-4 in the conference standings, Fresno State has a commanding lead over four teams with eight or nine conference wins, including fifth place San Jose State (8-10 MW). This series could determine not just the path for Fresno State to secure first place—but if San Jose State can even get the chance to defend their Mountain West Tournament title by finishing fourth or better.
The currently scheduled pitching matchups are as follows.
- Friday:RH Keaton Chase(1-1, 8.88 ERA) vs.LH Jake Dixon (4-1, 4.06 ERA)
- Saturday:LH Micky Thompson(2-4, 6.70 ERA) vs. RHNoah Beal (1-1, 2.12 ERA)
- Sunday: TBD vs.RH Jake Riding (2-0, 3.86 ERA)
Season-by-season comparison: San Jose State
Statistically, San Jose State has declined in all aspects of the game. Last year's team had a .282 batting average, 5.95 ERA, and .971 fielding percentage.
Currently, San Jose State is hitting .249, pitching with a 6.79 ERA, and fielding at .966.
Roster changes after the 2023 conference championships account for many of these declines, such as the loss of two top offensive starters, Charles McAdoo (early MLB draft entry) and Jack Colette (graduation). They combined for 89 out of the 335 team RBI, or over 25 percent of the scoring!
The team does have 2023 All-MW batters Hunter Dorraugh (.311 BA, 15 RBI, six HR) and Theo Hardy (.248 BA, 22 RBI, four HR) back along with super seniors Dalton Bowling (team leading .320 BA, 29 RBI, nine HR) and Robert Hamchuk (.305 BA, 23 RBI, five HR), but they are not getting much help from the rest of the lineup. Three regular starters from early in the season have batting averages below the Mendoza line—in the .100s!
In the bullpen, San Jose State lost the production of two reliable closers to graduation, Darren Jansen and Jack White. They had a combined nine wins and six saves. Nathan Hansen, a reliable reliever who got the championship-clinching win vs. Air Force, left the team after fall ball.
This season, there has not yet been a reliable closer besides Cade Van Allen (two saves). The lack of a reliable bullpen showed in games such as the 6-2 loss vs. Fresno State, or a 7-6 lead turning into an 8-7 loss at UNLV. And who can forget that time San Jose State led 11-0 at UC San Diego but lost 12-11?
Other than pitcher Nolan George (2-0 with a team leading 4.09 ERA) and center fielder Sebastian Orduño (tied for third on the team with 23 RBI), Sanfilippo's attempts to backfill the roster through the transfer portal has largely been a bust.
As such, it has become far too easy for opposing pitchers to generate easy outs. This season, San Jose State has a strikeout rate of .271—333 strikeouts in 1,231 at-bats. That's a nearly five percent increase from last season with 450 strikeouts in 2,002 at-bats (.225).
Evaluating Fresno State
As the 2008 College World Series title became further and further distant, Fresno State had become pedestrian in Batesole's final two seasons.
The promotion of longtime pitching coach Ryan Overland helped keep much of Fresno State's core lineup intact. Leading the Fresno State offensive attack is senior two-way player Tommy Hopfe, a 2023 All-MW first-teamer hitting a team-best .386. Third baseman Murf Gray, the 2023 MW Freshman of the Year, is hitting .255 with 31 RBI. As a team, Fresno State is hitting .301 (second in the MW).
Overland has also gotten much more help from transfers, with his leadoff batters Eddie Saldivar (.356 BA, 28 RBI, five HR) and Rocco Peppi (.345 BA, 39 RBI, team leading 10 HR) both coming from Long Beach State.
Hopfe has also been an excellent closer with seven saves. Fresno State also has two undefeated pitchers, Jack Anker (5-0, 2.13 ERA) and Jake Riding (4-0, 3.86 ERA). The team ERA of 4.76 is the best in the conference—which will be pit against the worst BA in the conference at .249!
Final analysis
Based on roster depth, statistics, and W-L record, Fresno State undoubtedly enters this series the much better team.
San Jose State will also have a much tougher time than last May at Beiden Field, because Fresno State has a 14-4 home record, in contrast to San Jose State's 5-16 road record.
Often, the fall-off in offense has required San Jose State to play perfect defense in order to win, yet giveaway bases have often cost San Jose State otherwise winnable games.
Thankfully, San Jose State has been playing better in conference, going from 4-8 to 8-10. The way this series ends could determine how the rest of the season will go: Either remaining in the hunt for a conference tournament spot, or simply sleepwalking through the remainder of the schedule.
Starting 4-8 out of a conference championship and plenty of preseason hype still remains such a stunning downfall.
Not only will San Jose State face a hot team, but they'll have to play in the warmest game day weather of the season. Fresno is forecast to have highs around 85 all weekend long.
